Cuba will change when ties with the U.S. are restored. How is anybody's guess.

Visit a cigar shop anywhere in the U.S., light up and listen in. Beyond the usual good-natured fencing over the elections, the economy and, of course, baseball, you're going hear talk about Fidel's resignation and the prospects of free trade with Cuba. We all have our point of view, but few of us really know what the end of the embargo will mean for the cigar fan.

First, let me say I'm just as anxious to have legal access to the world's best Cuban cigars as the next guy. I love Cuban cigars, and I still think that a solid Cuban smoke is still the best smoke in the world. My travels to Havana and Pinar del Rio have made for some of the best moments in my life. When I met up with Alejandro Robaina to see his farm and the beautiful wrappers he was aging there, I was invited to sit on his patio, share a cigar and talk about the future of the industry. He spoke directly and honestly about the embargo, predicting the inevitability of its ending, and impact that would have on his farm and the region. I wish everyone who loves cigars had the same chance to visit Cuba, and perhaps spend an afternoon with Alejandro. They, too, would never forget it.

But (with apologies to Flannery O'Connor) a good Cuban is hard to find -- buying a box is often a hit-or-miss proposition. So, if and when our next president decides to work with Cuba's new leaders and lift the embargo, there's no way that Cuba will be able to meet the U.S. demand. Not for a few years, at least.

Under Pressure

To put it into perspective, if Cuba were to also supply the U.S. with cigars, based on the country's current production for distribution to the rest of the world, it would run out of inventory in approximately four months. And while the Cuban cigar industry -- i.e., the Cuban government -- has made great strides to improve the quality of its exports during the past five years, there's no way it can maintain those standards while doubling or tripling its production.

Quality will likely suffer as a result. Even today (and even from the best retailers around the world) buying a box of Cubans is hit or miss, and if post-embargo production skyrockets, then more Cuban cigars will be flawed. This will last until cigar-makers figure out how to reconcile increased demand with the supplies they have on hand, while bringing their quality standards back into alignment.

Change is Good?

That's not all: Cuban cigar prices will likely head for the ceiling as well (if you have a favorite supplier in the U.K. or Montreal, you'll likely spend a lot more for that box of Bolivar than you'd like). What’s more, there are going to be some heady trademark battles with the exiled families and cigar makers who own the global rights to some of Cuba's legendary brands.

There is, however, a silver lining for the cigar fan. Castro's resignation, combined with new leadership in Washington, will mark the ever-important first step toward a future of real choice for U.S. cigar smokers. As my good friend George, the manager of New York's De La Concha and a Cuban exile, told me recently: "There is change, and this change will eventually be good for the U.S. and Cuba."

Back to the Future

In the meantime, should the embargo drop, it will take time for the Cuban cigar industry to adjust. (Look at any of the transitions in formerly communist Eastern Europe; it takes time for those governments to switch gears.) But while we watch history roll forward, I would recommend you stick with your favorite Dominican or Nicaraguan brands -- not to mention your special stash of Cubans.

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